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Coping with abuse in the work place

Public release date: 4-Jan-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Rachel Feldman
rfeldman@univ.haifa.ac.il
972-543-933-092
University of Haifa

Employees keep their distance from the abusive boss

Confronting an abusive boss is easier said than done: employees coping with the stress of abusive treatment prefer to avoid direct communication even though it would be the most effective tactic in terms of emotional well-being. This has been shown in a new study from the University of Haifa, published in the International Journal of Stress Management (American Psychological Association). "Abusive supervision is highly distressing for employees. Our study shows that the strategies being used by employees to cope with the stress caused by such behavior do not lead to the most positive outcomes," said Prof. Dana Yagil, who headed the study.

Earlier studies have examined the effect of abusive supervision on employee performance, but the new study set out to determine the effect of the different coping strategies on employee well-being. The study, which Prof. Yagil conducted with Prof. Hasida Ben-Zur and Inbal Tamir, of the University of Haifa's Faculty of Social Welfare and Health Sciences, examined five types of strategies used for coping with the stress factor of abusive treatment: directly communicating with the abusive supervisor to discuss the problems; using forms of ingratiation i.e., doing favors, using flattery and compliance; seeking support from others; avoiding contact with the supervisor; and what is known as "reframing" mentally restructuring the abuse in a way that decreases its threat.

Participating in the study were 300 employees who were asked to rate the frequency of experiencing abusive behavior by a supervisor, such as ridicule, invasion of privacy, rudeness and lying. The participants were also asked to rate the frequency of engaging in each of 25 strategies that belong to the five categories. For example: "I tell the supervisor directly that he/she must not treat me like that" (direct communication category) ; "I support the supervisor in matters that are important to him/her, so that he/she will see I am on his/her side" (ingratiation); "I try to have the least possible contact with the supervisor (avoidance of contact); "I relieve myself by talking to other people about the supervisor's behavior" (support-seeking); and "I remind myself that there are more important matters in my life" (reframing).

The study found that abusive treatment from a superior was most strongly associated with avoiding contact disengaging from the supervisor as much as possible and to seeking social support. Abusive supervision was least strongly associated with the strategy of direct communication. However, avoidance and seeking support resulted in the employees' experiencing negative emotions, while communication with the supervisor which employees do less - was the strategy most strongly related to employees' positive emotions. "It is understandable that employees wish to reduce their contact with an abusive boss to a minimum," says Dr. Yagil. "However, this strategy further increases the employee's stress because it is associated with a sense of weakness and perpetuates their fear of the supervisor."

The study shows that managers should be alert to signs of employee detachment - as it might indicate that their own behavior is being considered offensive by those employees.

###

For more information:
Rachel Feldman
Communications & Media
University of Haifa
Tel: 972-4-8288722
Cell: 972-54-3933092
rfeldman@univ.haifa.ac.il

---

[ | E-mail | Share ]

?

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Public release date: 4-Jan-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Rachel Feldman
rfeldman@univ.haifa.ac.il
972-543-933-092
University of Haifa

Employees keep their distance from the abusive boss

Confronting an abusive boss is easier said than done: employees coping with the stress of abusive treatment prefer to avoid direct communication even though it would be the most effective tactic in terms of emotional well-being. This has been shown in a new study from the University of Haifa, published in the International Journal of Stress Management (American Psychological Association). "Abusive supervision is highly distressing for employees. Our study shows that the strategies being used by employees to cope with the stress caused by such behavior do not lead to the most positive outcomes," said Prof. Dana Yagil, who headed the study.

Earlier studies have examined the effect of abusive supervision on employee performance, but the new study set out to determine the effect of the different coping strategies on employee well-being. The study, which Prof. Yagil conducted with Prof. Hasida Ben-Zur and Inbal Tamir, of the University of Haifa's Faculty of Social Welfare and Health Sciences, examined five types of strategies used for coping with the stress factor of abusive treatment: directly communicating with the abusive supervisor to discuss the problems; using forms of ingratiation i.e., doing favors, using flattery and compliance; seeking support from others; avoiding contact with the supervisor; and what is known as "reframing" mentally restructuring the abuse in a way that decreases its threat.

Participating in the study were 300 employees who were asked to rate the frequency of experiencing abusive behavior by a supervisor, such as ridicule, invasion of privacy, rudeness and lying. The participants were also asked to rate the frequency of engaging in each of 25 strategies that belong to the five categories. For example: "I tell the supervisor directly that he/she must not treat me like that" (direct communication category) ; "I support the supervisor in matters that are important to him/her, so that he/she will see I am on his/her side" (ingratiation); "I try to have the least possible contact with the supervisor (avoidance of contact); "I relieve myself by talking to other people about the supervisor's behavior" (support-seeking); and "I remind myself that there are more important matters in my life" (reframing).

The study found that abusive treatment from a superior was most strongly associated with avoiding contact disengaging from the supervisor as much as possible and to seeking social support. Abusive supervision was least strongly associated with the strategy of direct communication. However, avoidance and seeking support resulted in the employees' experiencing negative emotions, while communication with the supervisor which employees do less - was the strategy most strongly related to employees' positive emotions. "It is understandable that employees wish to reduce their contact with an abusive boss to a minimum," says Dr. Yagil. "However, this strategy further increases the employee's stress because it is associated with a sense of weakness and perpetuates their fear of the supervisor."

The study shows that managers should be alert to signs of employee detachment - as it might indicate that their own behavior is being considered offensive by those employees.

###

For more information:
Rachel Feldman
Communications & Media
University of Haifa
Tel: 972-4-8288722
Cell: 972-54-3933092
rfeldman@univ.haifa.ac.il

---

[ | E-mail | Share ]

?

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-01/uoh-cwa010412.php

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5 dead, others wounded in Nigeria church attack (AP)

GOMBE, Nigeria ? Gunmen attacked a church in northeast Nigeria during a prayer service Thursday night, killing at least five people and wounding others in an assault that occurred amid an increasingly violent campaign by a radical Muslim sect.

Pastor Johnson Jauro said the gunfire sprayed the Deeper Life Church in Gombe, the capital of Gombe state, injuring several worshippers and killing his wife and two others. He spoke at a local hospital, where a joint team of soldiers and police officers stood guard. Two other people later died at the hospital from their wounds and an Associated Press reporter saw their bodies.

Local police spokesman Ahmed Muhammad confirmed the attack, but declined to say how many people the gunmen killed and wounded.

The assault occurred as Nigeria remains under attack by the sect known as Boko Haram. The oil-rich nation's president recently put regions of the country under a state of emergency due to the threat, but that did not include Gombe, which sits about 350 miles (570 kilometers) from Nigeria's central capital, Abuja.

No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but suspicion immediately fell on Boko Haram. The sect has carried out increasingly sophisticated and bloody attacks in its campaign to implement strict Shariah law across Nigeria, a multiethnic nation of more than 160 million people.

Boko Haram, whose name means "Western education is sacrilege" in the local Hausa language, is responsible for more than 500 killings this year alone, according to an Associated Press count. The group claimed responsibility for an attack that killed at least 39 people in a Christmas Day bombing of a Catholic church near Abuja, as well as a suicide car bombing targeting the U.N. headquarters in the capital that killed 25 people and wounded more than 100.

Nigeria's weak central government has been slow to respond to the sect.

On Dec. 31, President Goodluck Jonathan declared regions of Borno, Niger, Plateau and Yobe states to be under a state of emergency ? meaning authorities can make arrests without proof and conduct searches without warrants. He also ordered international borders near Borno and Yobe state to be closed.

However, it remains unclear what effect that will have on a sect that has adopted hit-and-run attacks and suicide bombings to target the country's military and police, as well as civilians.

Meanwhile, a military spokesman said Thursday that soldiers killed two armed men suspected to be Boko Haram members after "resisting arrest" in the northeastern city of Maiduguri. Lt. Col. Hassan Ifijeh Mohammed said the army believes the gunmen were responsible for an attack Wednesday evening that left two people dead.

However, human rights activists say security forces have carried out so-called "extra-judicial killings" out of frustration and anger at being unable to stop Boko Haram.

___

Associated Press writers Ibrahim Garba in Kano, Nigeria; Njadvara Musa in Maiduguri, Nigeria and Jon Gambrell in Lagos, Nigeria contributed to this report.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/world/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20120105/ap_on_re_af/af_nigeria_violence

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Paul's Secret Victory in Iowa (Taegan Goddard's Political Wire)

Share With Friends: | | Politics - Top Stories News, RSS and RSS Feed via Feedzilla.

Source: http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/politics/top-stories/182793834?client_source=feed&format=rss

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Rams fire coach, GM after another dismal year

ST. LOUIS (AP) ? The St. Louis Rams fired coach Steve Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney on Monday, a day after the team wrapped up a 2-14 season that matched the worst record in the National Football League.

The Rams made a six-win improvement last season and played for the NFC West title in the finale, but were just 10-38 overall in three seasons with Spagnuolo and Devaney calling the shots.

Devaney had joined the front office a year earlier in 2008; the Rams were 12-52 in his four years as GM. He said in a statement Monday that while the record was disappointing, "I wouldn't trade that time for anything."

Owner Stan Kroenke fired both men with one year remaining on their contracts, and with fan interest dwindling. The Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis was little more than half full in the later part of the season.

"No one individual is to blame for this disappointing season and we all must hold ourselves accountable," Kroenke said in a statement. "However, we believe it's in the best interest of the St. Louis Rams to make these changes as we continue our quest to build a team that consistently competes for playoffs and championships."

Kevin Demoff, vice president and chief operating officer, said the search for both positions should be concluded in the next few weeks and that it didn't necessarily matter which position was filed first.

Names of potential replacements for Spagnuolo began to surface weeks ago as the season unraveled, with former Tennessee Titans coach Jeff Fisher and former Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden mentioned as natural fits.

Demoff said a report that Fisher had already been scheduled for the first interview was "100 percent false." But he added that Fisher was a "potentially attractive candidate."

The Rams will have the second pick of the NFL draft in April, the fourth time in five seasons the team has had the No. 1 or 2 selection.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/347875155d53465d95cec892aeb06419/Article_2012-01-02-Rams-Spagnuolo%20Fired/id-812ac4934a0645bf977632c856b4160c

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Atlanta Falcons finish regular season with romp over Tampa Bay Buccaneers; will play at New York Giants 1 p.m. Sunday in first round of NFL playoffs

ATLANTA -- Michael Turner and the Falcons didn?t want to settle for just making the playoffs.

They wanted momentum and the best seed possible.

Hoping for a fast start, the Falcons set a team record with 42 first-half points, including two touchdown runs by Turner, and Atlanta cruised to a 45-24 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday to clinch the No. 5 seed.

Julio Jones caught two touchdown passes in a span of 26 seconds in the first quarter as the Falcons gave the Buccaneers their 10th straight loss.

?We didn?t want to come down to the wire, backing into the playoffs,? Turner said.

The Falcons were motivated by two blowout losses -- 48-21 to Green Bay in last year?s playoffs and 45-16 at New Orleans last week.

?Getting embarrassed like that last year, that?s not who we were,? Turner said. ?We just wanted another chance.?

The Falcons (10-6) and Detroit (10-6) are the NFC wild cards. Atlanta, which beat Detroit on Oct. 23, won the tiebreaker with the Lions for the more favorable seeding. The Falcons will play at the New York Giants in the first round of the playoffs.

?We wanted to play our final regular-season game with a lot of intensity and energy, and I think we did that in all three phases,? Falcons coach Mike Smith said.

Josh Freeman threw two interceptions and lost a fumble in the first half as the Buccaneers (4-12) closed their season with their 10th straight loss, leaving the status of coach Raheem Morris in doubt.

?If I was in the business of working out my future, I wouldn?t be coaching,? Morris said. ?I?m going to go to work tomorrow until they tell me to stop.?

The Falcons led 42-0 when they began resting some starters, including quarterback Matt Ryan and Turner, late in the first half.

?We had opportunities the week before and just didn?t make the plays,? Ryan said. ?Today, we made the plays and I think that?s what we needed moving forward.?

Ryan was 6 of 9 for 106 yards, including touchdown passes of 17 and 48 yards to Jones in the first quarter.

Tampa Bay, which finished 10-6 last season and started 4-2 this season, is left with its longest losing streak in one season in 34 years. The Buccaneers also lost 10 straight in 1977. They lost 11 straight between the 2008 and 2009 seasons.

?This is not the season we wanted or expected, but we will need to rededicate ourselves and get ready for this offseason,? Morris said.

Turnovers were a problem for the Buccaneers all season. Freeman began the day tied for the league lead with 19 interceptions before completing 31 of 45 passes for 274 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions.

With Atlanta leading 42-0, Freeman threw a 2-yard touchdown pass to Dezmon Briscoe with about 2 minutes remaining in the first half. Freeman threw a 5-yard TD pass to Briscoe in the fourth quarter.

Tampa Bay?s other touchdown came on Elbert Mack?s 40-yard interception return against Falcons? backup Chris Redman in the third quarter.

Turner ran for 172 yards and two touchdowns, including an 81-yard scoring run late in the first half. The score capped the Falcons? run of six unanswered touchdowns.

The Falcons led 21-0 after the first quarter and then put the game away with three more touchdowns in the second quarter.

The strong showing was important for the Falcons. Last week?s loss at New Orleans was the worst in four seasons with Smith.

?The main thing we wanted to do was flush out of our system last week,? tight end Tony Gonzalez said.

The Falcons announced before the game Gonzalez, 35, has signed a one-year contract extension, ending speculation he might retire after this season.

The Falcons had the No. 1 seed in the playoffs last year before losing to the Packers.

Despite the team?s lower seed, Gonzalez said the Falcons are prepared for a longer postseason run.

?Honestly, I?ve said it all year: I think we?re a better team than we were last year,? Gonzalez said.

Rookie Jacquizz Rodgers scored on a 1-yard run for his first career touchdown to start the Falcons? scoring. Rodgers lost a fumble at the Tampa Bay 2 in the fourth quarter.

After Ryan?s first TD pass to Jones, Dominique Franks? interception on Tampa Bay?s first down gave the ball back to Atlanta.

On first down from the Buccaneers 48, Ryan again threw to Jones, who fought off safety Tanard Jackson for the catch. Jones then jumped up from the turf, hit cornerback E.J. Biggers with a stiff-arm and then dragged Biggers into the end zone.

Turner had two touchdown runs and Curtis Lofton returned an interception 26 yards for a touchdown in the second quarter.

Matt Bryant kicked a 20-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter after the Buccaneers were stopped on fourth down at their 10.

Notes: Ryan passed Jeff George for the Falcons? most yards passing in a season. George threw for 4,143 yards in 1995. Ryan has 4,177. ... Turner has 50 rushing touchdowns in four seasons with the Falcons, passing Gerald Riggs? team record of 48. ... WR Roddy White also celebrated a milestone, passing Terance Mathis for the most yards receiving with the Falcons. Mathis had 7,349 yards from 1994-2001. White finished the game with 7,374 for his career. ... By playing in his 225th game with Tampa Bay, CB Ronde Barber passed Derrick Brooks for the team record.

Tampa Bay 0 7 11 6--24

Atlanta 21 21 0 3--45

First Quarter

Atl--Rodgers 1 run (Bryant kick), 8:12. Drive: 12 plays, 80 yards, 6:48. Key Plays: Turner 26 run; Ryan 23 pass to White on 3rd-and-11; Ryan 8 pass to Gonzalez on 3rd-and-6; Turner 2 run on 3rd-and-1. Atlanta 7, Tampa Bay 0.

Atl--Jones 17 pass from Ryan (Bryant kick), 3:30. Drive: 7 plays, 53 yards, 2:52. Key Plays: Bennett 15-yard roughing the passer penalty; Turner 13 run. Atlanta 14, Tampa Bay 0.

Atl--Jones 48 pass from Ryan (Bryant kick), 3:04. Drive: 1 play, 48 yards, 0:12. Key Play: Franks interception at Tampa Bay 48. Atlanta 21, Tampa Bay 0.

Second Quarter

Atl--Turner 1 run (Bryant kick), 11:40. Drive: 7 plays, 30 yards, 3:34. Key Plays: Abraham fumble recovery (Freeman); Turner 14 run. Atlanta 28, Tampa Bay 0.

Atl--Lofton 26 interception return (Bryant kick), 10:43. Atlanta 35, Tampa Bay 0.

Atl--Turner 81 run (Bryant kick), 6:49. Drive: 2 plays, 86 yards, 0:50. Atlanta 42, Tampa Bay 0.

TB--Briscoe 2 pass from Freeman (Barth kick), 2:04. Drive: 7 plays, 80 yards, 4:45. Key Plays: Freeman 48 pass to Parker; Freeman 13 pass to Winslow. Atlanta 42, Tampa Bay 7.

Third Quarter

TB--FG Barth 41, 4:19. Drive: 10 plays, 53 yards, 5:27. Key Plays: Freeman 10 pass to Blount; Freeman 11 pass to Parker; Freeman 31 pass to Williams; Freeman 10 pass to Winslow. Atlanta 42, Tampa Bay 10.

TB--Mack 40 interception return (Winslow pass from Freeman), 3:32. Atlanta 42, Tampa Bay 18.

Fourth Quarter

TB--Briscoe 5 pass from Freeman (run failed), 11:13. Drive: 10 plays, 77 yards, 5:03. Key Plays: Freeman 22 pass to Winslow; Freeman 11 pass to Blount; Freeman 9 pass to Briscoe on 3rd-and-8. Atlanta 42, Tampa Bay 24.

Atl--FG Bryant 20, 3:59. Drive: 4 plays, 8 yards, 2:10. Key Play: Gained possession on downs at Tampa Bay 10. Atlanta 45, Tampa Bay 24.

A--68,167.

TB Atl

FIRST DOWNS 18 22

Rushing 3 13

Passing 15 8

Penalty 0 1

THIRD DOWN EFF 6-12 6-11

FOURTH DOWN EFF 0-1 1-1

TOTAL NET YARDS 294 428

Total Plays 61 59

Avg Gain 4.8 7.3

NET YARDS RUSHING 35 251

Rushes 14 38

Avg per rush 2.5 6.6

NET YARDS PASSING 259 177

Sacked-Yds lost 2-15 0-0

Gross-Yds passing 274 177

Completed-Att. 31-45 13-21

Had Intercepted 3 1

Yards-Pass Play 5.5 8.4

KICKOFFS-EndZone-TB 5-4-4 8-7-5

PUNTS-Avg. 3-49.7 2-50.5

Punts blocked 0 0

FGs-PATs blocked 0-0 0-0

TOTAL RETURN YARDAGE 108 58

Punt Returns 2-15 1-9

Kickoff Returns 3-53 0-0

Interceptions 1-40 3-49

PENALTIES-Yds 2-20 3-20

FUMBLES-Lost 3-1 1-1

TIME OF POSSESSION 29:52 30:08

INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS

RUSHING--Tampa Bay, Freeman 3-14, Blount 6-12, J.Johnson 1-5, Madu 2-4, Lumpkin 2-0. Atlanta, Turner 17-172, Snelling 9-50, Rodgers 8-24, Jones 1-9, Redman 3-(minus 4).

PASSING--Tampa Bay, Freeman 31-45-3-274. Atlanta, Ryan 6-9-0-106, Redman 7-12-1-71.

RECEIVING--Tampa Bay, Briscoe 8-53, Winslow 7-56, Lumpkin 5-27, Parker 4-74, Madu 3-19, Blount 3-14, Williams 1-31. Atlanta, Jones 4-76, White 4-69, Gonzalez 1-8, Weems 1-8, Palmer 1-7, Rodgers 1-5, Snelling 1-4.

PUNT RETURNS--Tampa Bay, Spurlock 2-15. Atlanta, Weems 1-9.

KICKOFF RETURNS--Tampa Bay, Parker 2-41, Spurlock 1-12. Atlanta, None.

TACKLES-ASSISTS-SACKS--Tampa Bay, Asante 7-1-0, Foster 4-2-0, Mack 3-2-0, Barber 3-1-0, Biggers 3-1-0, Haynesworth 3-0-0, Okam 3-0-0, Bennett 2-0-0, Bowers 2-0-0, Briscoe 2-0-0, Miller 2-0-0, A.Black 1-2-0, Q.Black 1-1-0, Freeman 1-0-0, Jackson 1-0-0, Lewis 1-0-0, Hayes 0-3-0, Jones 0-3-0, Clayborn 0-1-0, Price 0-1-0. Atlanta, Lofton 8-6-0, DeCoud 6-2-0, Owens 3-3-0, Weatherspoon 3-3-0, Franks 3-2-0, Moore 2-4-0?, Biermann 1-3-0?, Adkins 1-2-0, Babineaux 1-1-0, Abraham 1-0-1, Edwards 1-0-0, Sidbury 1-0-0, Smith 1-0-0, Dent 0-2-0, Sanders 0-2-0, Peters 0-1-0, Rodgers 0-1-0.

INTERCEPTIONS--Tampa Bay, Mack 1-40. Atlanta, Lofton 1-26, Walls 1-23, Franks 1-0.

MISSED FIELD GOALS--None.

OFFICIALS--Referee Scott Green, Ump Bruce Stritesky, HL Tom Stabile, LJ Tom Barnes, FJ Dyrol Prioleau, SJ Larry Rose, BJ Scott Helverson, Replay Carl Madsen.

Time: 2:58.

Source: http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r5688286611

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TV Sports: With ?24/7,? HBO Refines a Winning Formula

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Source: www.nytimes.com --- Monday, January 02, 2012
The cable network follows myriad story lines with a nearly relentless ardor in ?24/7 Flyers/Rangers: Road to the N.H.L. Winter Classic.? ...

Source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=1fcef33f220f07cb7416c098a1c46192

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Don't put all eggs in the $3bn Chinese loan basket - IMANI report

It is highly doubtful that, in the short term, Government of Ghana shall be able to satisfy the strict credit requirements of the China Development Bank in order to secure the entire $3 billion mentioned in the government's framework agreement with the state-owned Chinese bank.

We [IMANI-Ghana] suspect that the maximum facility available to Ghana shall not exceed $1 billion over the timeframe of 2012 -2013. And even this $1 billion shall not come on a silver platter.

In keeping with this opinion, which we shall back up with analysis in this report, we are worried that government's over-reliance on this facility to prosecute its 2013 economic program, especially in the infrastructure area, could lead to dislocations in the economy and frustrations on the part of its managers.

In his New Year address, the President of the Republic left all of us in no doubt about how central the $3 billion facility has become to the government's overall economic agenda. According to a Ghana News Agency report of the speech, President Mills '[was] therefore confident [that] government's infrastructural development will receive a boost this year following the approval of the 3 billion dollar Chinese loan. '

It is important to stress that the said $3 billion loan facility has NOT been approved by the authority that matters - the board of the Chinese Development Bank (CDB).

What has been 'approved' is a 'master framework agreement (MFA)' suggesting in very loose language that CDB is interested in discussing whether and how it may be viable to invest $3 billion in Ghana's oil and gas infrastructure.

Per article 26 of the MFA:
'Except for the provision of Article 22, this Framework Agreement shall be deemed to be a letter of intent and understanding of the Parties and is not intended to create any legal relations or obligations on either Party. '

The only binding clause, article 22, states that:
'The Parties agree that no Party shall disclose the content of this Framework Agreement or any other agreements or documents generated or communicated between the Parties pursuant to this Framework Agreement without the express written consent of the other Party except where such disclosure is required by the laws of PRC and/or Ghana. '

Rubber-stamping
The agreement was nothing more than a non-binding memorandum of understanding to set the stage for discussions. The first serious product of those discussions is the subsidiary agreement now before Parliament. This agreement has not been made public, but it follows that Parliament will seek to scrutinise it carefully with a view to aligning all its key provisions with the national interest. We have no doubt in our mind that Parliament shall not be rushed into rubber-stamping any vague, poorly drafted, language in the agreement.

After the approval by Parliament of the supplementary agreement, which concerns a reported $1 billion for the development of gas infrastructure in the Western Region, the Board of the China Development Bank shall finalise a disbursement schedule and milestone management process with the Ministry of Finance. All this shall take at least a few months.

A notion is taking hold in Africa that Chinese money is 'easy' money. A misconception has grown regarding the rigour of credit evaluation by Chinese financial institutions of opportunities in Africa, and this is leading to confusion and disappointment in many African countries when pledged monies ultimately delay by several years. A good case in point is the $2. 6 billion pledged by China Union to Liberia for the development of the Bong iron deposits. Nearly 3 years on and 2 amendments later, the Chinese partners are still scrutinising the terms of the deal, with very little actual cash having been seen in Liberia.

Let us bear in mind that Chinese financial institutions are adopting global standards of credit and risk evaluation and have therefore increasingly little propensity to pump money into half-baked or unready projects. Increasingly, their expectations of quality and rigour, and in particular profitability, are as high and as tough to meet as those of any financial institution anywhere on the globe.

In seeking to understand the likely pace of disbursement of the $1 billion currently under serious discussion and to assess the chances of any more money coming in from the loosely worded $3 billion non-committed 'pledge', we need to understand the CDB's own lending history and technique.

The CDB is reputed to be China's 4th largest bank. Its board reports directly to China's State Council, that country's equivalent of our 'cabinet'.

Domestic opportunities
The CDB concentrates overwhelmingly on domestic opportunities in China, spending huge amounts of money in China's backwaters, away from the gleaming South-East, in search of profits within the context of the Chinese government's determined push to develop the poorer Western hinterlands and rural backyards of that country.

Of its more than $800 billion loan portfolio, only about 17. 5% are designated in foreign currency, suggesting a roughly equivalent proportion of foreign loans.

CDB's foreign currency-denominated loans are provided to foreign borrowers in the context of the bank's 'go global' strategy, a policy that blends China's foreign policy interests with a risk diversification focus.

In the last few years, CDB's go-global strategy has seen an overwhelming amount of its foreign loans go into what have become known as 'energy-backed loans'. These loans achieve the combined effect of helping China secure reliable energy supplies and securing lucrative revenue streams for CDB in new markets at the same time.

Consider that over the past decade the bank's foreign loan portfolio has grown more than ten-fold, and that more than half of that has been accumulated just over the last four years by way of energy-backed loans to a handful of oil-rich countries. But what are 'energy-backed' loans?

CDB has been providing multi-billion dollar facilities to energy-rich countries like Venezuela, Brazil, and Ecuador, among others, for medium-risk oil- and gas - related infrastructure for a while now. These loans require the receiving countries through their governments and state-owned oil and gas companies to pay the principals and interests on these loans using proceeds from the sale of oil directly to preferred Chinese companies, especially China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Sinopec.

The proceeds from these oil and gas sales are kept in special accounts at the CDB so that the relevant percentage can be used to service the interest and principal due on the loan amount before any outstanding payments are made to the borrowing country.

Ghana's decision to circumvent due process and award the gas infrastructure development contract to Sinopec should be interpreted against this background, and is probably in the knowledge that Sinopec will be able to influence the disbursement of the pledged loan to Ghana. As has been its practice in other instances, CDB may pay the monies owed Sinopec for pre-financing the project directly to Sinopec.

In fact, in some of the CDB energy-backed transactions we have studied, the entire pot of money never leaves the special account at the CDB, or a considerable proportion stays put in the account, and are disbursed directly to Chinese vendors and contractors working on the infrastructure project in the borrowing country.

In the case of Ghana, the agreement anticipates that 60% of the value of contracts involved in the gas project shall go to Chinese vendors. In practice, we anticipate close to 85% in view of the highly specialised nature of the project. It is therefore possible that the actual direct transfers to Ghana may total less than $150 million.

But the most important issue relates to the CDB's credit determination and risk management process which the bank perfected under its former chairman, Chen Yuan: the 12-grade asset classification system and the 5-point risk management strategy. We will not bore readers with the details, but suffice it to say that following this philosophy CDB has kept non-performing loans to less than 2% of its operating portfolio and considerably excelled the People's Bank of China's guidelines on these matters. CDB swears by this philosophy.

This is the spirit that informs and influences CDB's design of its energy-backed loans. We have spent some time trying to discern the pattern behind these loans. A basic statistical model yields a framework in which the size of the loans are tied to an aggregated set of factors related to the quantity of barrels of oil (per day) the borrowing country is ready to sell to Chinese oil trading companies, the anticipated cashflow from these and other resource sales to finance the credit amount being sought by the borrower country and its state-owned energy company, as well as the absolute size of the country's energy resource endowment.

Collateral
In very simple terms, below 100,000 barrels per day, a country receives about $50 million (adjusted) for each 1000 barrels per day it is able to pledge to serve partly as collateral and partly as ?guaranteed supply to China? in exchange for the credit amount sought. It follows naturally that for highly endowed countries like Brazil and Russia seeking long term loans, with a term of maturity in the order of 20 years thereabouts, the ratio could be as favorable as 1,000 barrels per day for each $70 million unit of the total loan amount granted (i. e. adjusted upwards from the mean) in view of their very high actual or potential relevance to China's energy security objectives.

Notwithstanding this preamble, if a county is highly endowed but is in desperate need for short-term, relatively higher risk, credit (eg. Venezuela) it may find that the ratio at play is around a relatively unfavourable $30 million per 1,000 barrels per day. That is to say, CDB rarely sacrifices its credit prudence measures, neither for China's energy diplomacy nor for instant profit gratification.

In summary, Ghana's ability or capacity to obtain funds from the China Development Bank, insofar as the current arrangement falls within the CDB's go-global energy-backed credit framework, is squarely dependent on the quantity of oil Ghana can deliver to Chinese buyers, and in particular how much of that quantity (described in terms of 'barrels per day equivalent') resource flow is owned by the government of Ghana, which is the borrower. The anticipated cashflow from Ghana's oil sales abroad is not a perfect proxy for the quantity of oil Ghana can supply to Chinese buyers, though it is also important since it is related to the government's future liquidity risks. This capacity to supply must be demonstrated rigorously, and is likely, along with oil pricing, to be the main subject matter in any protracted negotiations.

In Ghana's case, the very limited proven size of the absolute resource endowment (notwithstanding potential prospects) suggests a reduced capacity to use upstream enticements to supplement or complement the above-mentioned resource-flow and cashflow (i. e. as a way of reducing the emphasis on ?total capacity to supply crude oil to Chinese buyers?) .

The decision to award the gas infrastructure contract to Sinopec cannot therefore fully compensate for this lack of upstream and associated opportunities because such contractual goodies are already provided for in the agreement in the form of the requirement to award 60% of the value of all contracts to Chinese vendors. It is instructive to recall that the $3 billion package was first mooted during the Exxon-Kosmos crisis, and that it foundered for the simple reason that the opportunities for upstream investment are few and most are yet to mature.

Will government of Ghana enjoy sufficient intake from crude production (for onward supply to China) and cashflow from oil sales next year to release the considerable amounts of Chinese money it seems to require for its economic agenda next year and do so smoothly and on time? That is the question. Luckily we don't need to conjecture, we only need to look at the figures to answer the question.

Government of Ghana received about $450 million in actual total receipts in 2011. Perhaps unique amongst all commentators, IMANI had consistently described the $1 billion total receipts figure that has been widely bandied about as unrealistic. In the final event, the actual receipts were closer to the estimate we projected in our analysis prior to the commencement of oil production than any from any other quarter, including the IMF.

The amount received by government roughly corresponds to a share of oil production amounting to about 13,000 barrels per day (at the average price of $90 per barrel used in the official accounting). Under the law, about 30% of these receipts are required to be allocated to the reserve accounts (the so-called Heritage and Stabilisation Funds), leaving 8400 barrels per day as the government's due share of total production volume in Ghana.

Despite assurances in the 2012 budget and elsewhere, there are grave doubts about a significant boost in the production volume of the Jubilee field. Nor is there much chance of more corporate taxes being paid by the oil production companies (so-called Jubilee field partners) in 2012 compared to 2011. Seeing as the oil companies paid $0 in 2011 in corporate taxes and considering that their capital costs recovery dynamics will not change in 2012, there is little to justify a higher projection than 8,000 barrels as the share of production volume due to government of Ghana.

Let us even be generous and allow a significant rise in production at the Jubilee field. Let us say by 50%. The share of crude oil production due government shall still not exceed 12,500 barrels per day.

For ease of analysis, we have left out the portion of total receipts by the state which must be transferred to the GNPC to enable the latter meet, among others, its participating interest obligations (more than 30% of total proceeds in 2011). The implication is however that the total number of barrels of oil per day due government is significantly lower than 12,000 barrels of oil per day. To make our subsequent points, this level of rigour is sufficient.

Determination technique
Per the CDB credit determination technique in place for energy-backed loans that we have discussed above, this means that should Ghana be treated between the extremes of Venezuela and Brazil, we could be entitled to a loan amount of about $40 million per each 1000 barrels government pledges to deliver to Chinese buyers.

From the preceding analysis, it follows that at our current level of oil production and government entitlement, we do not, ordinarily, qualify for more than $500 million from a resource-based credit-worthiness perspective, per the CDB approach. In fact, of all the countries that have benefitted from this CDB energy-backed product, Ghana is by far the smallest producer of oil and its available government-allocated oil-tied collateral is the lowest and weakest.

Note that we are not saying for a fact that Government of Ghana shall pledge or sell its entire intake of crude oil production to Chinese buyers. Rather we are saying that this is the maximum quantity of crude government can rigorously demonstrate in negotiations with the CDB as likely to be available for supply to Chinese buyers, an important criterion in determining the size of credit a borrower country may qualify for in the CDB energy-backed credit framework. Nor have we commented on the implications of servicing the loan on Ghana's macroeconomic health or the legality of using the government's share of oil proceeds to service loans for infrastructure outside the areas designated in the applicable law. We are currently concerned solely with Ghana's credit-worthiness in the eyes of the lender in question for the size of loans the administration appears to require for its infrastructure program within the context of a peculiar credit-assessment method in use by the CDB in particular.

Per the credit-assessment method afore-described, any amount of money loaned to Ghana beyond $500 million is a windfall due directly to a relaxation of standards on the part of the CDB. It is only fair to assume that any such relaxation of standards would be accompanied by significant hand-wringing by CDB's credit officers over such matters as pricing for the oil and delivery schedules and logistics. In effect, CDB is already being quite generous from a 'borrower's capacity to pay' point of view by pledging a $billion in short-term disbursements. To expect $3 billion in 2012 is to stretch credulity.

It is true that the energy-backed loans technique discussed above does not take into account the fact that a government may choose to service its loan obligations by dedicating a larger percentage of actual oil income, and even supplement this amount with income from other sources, than its cashflow in barrels-per-day equivalent may suggest, but the CDB knows the pressures on the average emerging country government as well as any of us, and its technique, discernible from the statistical model we have discussed in this report, emphasises, as we have discussed already, total capacity to supply actual, unencumbered, oil to China and not just cashflows from the oil resource from multiple sources.

What does all this mean? Quite simple, really. Government should not neglect to optimise all its other revenue sources in a frenzied pursuit of the CDB loan. We are saddened by the continued slow disbursement of already committed money that has led to many infrastructure projects languishing in various stages of abandonment all over the country.

We believe the delusion about easy overseas money is partly to account for the underperformance of several contracts on the domestic scene where funds have already been secured and committed. This is a subject to which we shall return in due course.

For now, all we will say to the ruling Administration is: do not put all our eggs in the CDB loan basket.

Source: ?IMANI-Ghana

Source: http://www.modernghana.com/news/369901/1/dont-put-all-eggs-in-the-3bn-chinese-loan-basket-i.html

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